Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) Tools and Datasets

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Global Change Research Program's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project is developing tools and scenarios which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate. As a part of the ICLUS project, Geographic Information System (GIS) tools can be used to generate scenarios of housing-density changes and calculate impervious surface cover for the U.S. The ICLUS User’s Guide accompanies the tool. This product distributes the population projections and creates land use data described in the 2009 EPA report "Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines."

The ICLUS tools for ArcGIS will allow users to:

  • Customize housing density patterns by altering household size and travel time assumptions.
  • Subset county-level population projections by age, ethnicity and gender.
  • Generate a map of estimated impervious surface based on a housing density map

ICLUS data was used for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and a map of the NCA regions is provided on the EPA website, allowing access ICLUS data for each region in the U.S. ICLUS data made available to the Regional groups of the NCA consists of population and housing density. Population data are based on the 2000 U.S. Census and use fertility rates from the Census Bureau to project population to 2100 in 5-year time steps for each county in the conterminous U.S. By using high and low fertility rates, scenarios are consistent with A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. The population data are used as inputs to a spatial allocation model, which produces maps of housing density. These data are classified into four categories of urban, suburban, exurban, and rural.

 

If you have any trouble accessing the website link above, please find here an archived page. You may find this has limited use. https://web.archive.org/save/_embed/https://www.epa.gov/iclus 

 

Publication Date: 2011

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  • Scenario planning

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