Transportation Planning, Climate Change, and Decision making Under Uncertainty
This report discusses ways that the uncertainty created by climate change and its impacts can be incorporated into long-range transportation planning. The paper examines how departments of transportation (DOTs) forecast travel demand for planning purposes, and it suggests several frameworks (i.e. scenario planning and adaptive management) that can be used to incorporate uncertain climate change impacts into these planning processes.
Case studies illustrate the application of methods to incorporate decision making under uncertainty. These studies reflect methods used in areas outside of transportation, including military planning and planning for higher education, and demonstrate ways in which such methods might be applied in transportation. The report also reflects upon possible opportunities and difficulties of applying these methods to the field of transportation.
Publication Date: 2008
Authors or Affiliated Users:
- James A. Dewar
- Martin Wachs
- RAND Corporation
- Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies
- Scenario planning