Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS Version 2)

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s modeling tool, Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) supports land use and change modeling based on nationwide modeled population, residential development, and impervious surface cover changes by decade to the year 2100. The second version (v2) of ICLUS released in 2017 includes updated population and land use data sets, and addresses limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The EPA suggests that improvements in ICLUS v2 facilitate the analysis of scenarios of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation options - including the use of ICLUS v2 outputs in models projecting emissions from developed land uses to determine consequences for water and air quality endpoints, as well as human health.

The Final Report is a companion user guide which describes the development of ICLUS v2 and all of the updates that were made to the original data sets and models.

ICLUS v2 shows differences in population migration patterns by including climate variables that change over time rather than ones that are static. V2 is consistent with updated global socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)) and new global climate change model targets (e.g., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)).

Improvements between versions include:

  • the use of updated population and land use/cover data sets,
  • integration of changing climate variables within the migration model,
  • inclusion of transportation network capacity and its increase over time,
  • growth in commercial and industrial land uses, and
  • the use of population density-driven demands for growth of residential housing, commercial development, and industry.

 

 

Publication Date: 2017

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  • Modeling tool

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