City of Toronto (Ontario, Canada) Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool
The City of Toronto developed its Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool, a software program and review process, to enable Toronto’s service and infrastructure providers to identify climate change risks and assess potential actions to reduce the impacts of climate change on infrastructure. Toronto’s Transportation Services Division (TSD) tested the tool in a 2011 pilot study, examining the impacts on 90 assets and services from seven extreme weather event types over two time horizons. The TSD pilot found that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is expected to quadruple the number of extreme risk scenarios by 2050.
TSD, which has assets valued at over $12 billion, previously had a general understanding of how climate change impacts might affect infrastructure by damaging transportation assets and increasing the costs of maintenance. Use of the tool and risk assessment process gave the Division more detailed insight into which specific assets are at risk and why. Fourteen TSD staff members employed the tool to assess the risks to over 90 critical assets and services from seven different extreme weather event types over two time horizons. The tool generated over 1,600 impact scenarios, for which potential adaptive measures were identified and assessed. The risk assessment tool and process showed that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events could quadruple the number of extreme risk scenarios and double the number of high risk scenarios in the 2040 to 2050 period. With this and other insights from the risk assessment process, TSD can prioritize its adaptive actions and reduce risks to the City’s transportation infrastructure.
The Risk Assessment Tool assesses the severity and the likelihood of occurrence of potential risks within a set time period, to prioritize risks and the corrective actions to address them. The four-step process is as follows:
1. Set the assessment context by defining the factors influencing the scope of the assessment and the baseline criteria against which potential risks are to be assessed (e.g. internal policies and regulatory requirements).
2. Identify climate change risks, possible responses to limit risks, and the potential impacts of those risks on assets and services.
3. Analyze and rank risks by assigning magnitude and likelihood ratings for risks, to determine overall risk rankings.
4. Prioritize risks based on significance, identify measures to reduce magnitude or likelihood of risks, and assess the effectiveness of these potential risk reduction measures.
The tool was developed as a key component of Toronto’s climate change adaptation plan, Ahead of the Storm: Preparing Toronto for Climate Change, which called for a formal risk assessment to prioritize impacts for action. Two Toronto divisions - TSD and the Shelter, Support & Housing Administration - have conducted climate change risk assessments using the tool, and Toronto formed a Resilient City Working Group to facilitate the risk assessment process.
This Adaptation Clearinghouse entry was prepared with support from the Federal Highway Administration. This entry was last updated on January 29, 2015.
Publication Date: 2010
Related Organizations:
- City of Toronto; Ontario, Canada
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Resource Types:
- Assessment guide
- Tool (general)
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