Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

In this “extreme event attribution” study, a team of researchers from Stanford University and other partner organizations developed a four-step framework to test whether, and to what extent, global warming contributes to extreme weather events. Using this framework researchers can quantify the influence of global warming on extreme events in both current and future climates. The authors suggest that the results offer decision makers valuable information for adaptation planning, such as for resilient infrastructure design, resource management, and disaster risk management. 

Specifically the research focused on climate impacts on temperature and precipitation including: severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period - for different areas of the globe. The study’s framework combines and compares statistical analyses of climate observations with a large climate model ensemble (LENS) to estimate the influence of global warming on these events.

Using the developed framework, the study finds that global warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at over 80% of the observed areas globally. Additionally, the study finds that climate change has increased the likelihood of driest years and wettest five-day period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively. Additional findings show that climate change had the strongest and most widespread influence on the longest hot and dry events in the tropics and, with extremely high statistical confidence, that anthropogenic global warming increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

 

Publication Date: March 10, 2017

Authors or Affiliated Users:

  • Noah Diffenbaugh
  • Deepti Singh
  • Justin Mankin
  • Daniel Horton
  • Daniel Swain
  • Danielle Touma
  • Allison Charland
  • Yunjie Liu
  • Matz Haugen
  • Michael Tsiang
  • Bala Rajaratnam

Related Organizations:

  • Stanford University

Resource Category:

Resource Types:

  • Academic research paper
  • Climate science

Impacts:

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