Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for the City of Tampa, Florida

The City of Tampa, Florida, with support from the Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission, conducted this assessment to project sea level rise and flooding impacts for the region through 2040. A property damage assessment is included to quantify local economic impacts on the communities and critical infrastructure. The Planning Commission ultimately proposes that the City of Tampa make changes in its code to reflect sea level rise and flooding preparedness.

The report describes expected sea level rise for the Tampa Bay region, and outlines what specific areas are at risk, including the populations, facilities and infrastructure in those areas. Utilizing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s 4 sea level rise scenarios, the region is expected to experience sea level rise between .5 to 2.5 feet by 2040. The assessment focused on three areas in particular: Old Tampa Bay near Tampa International Airport, Tampa Bay east of MacDill Air Force Base, and McKay Bay and the Tampa Bypass Canal.

Property damage from sea level rise was estimated by the Planning Commission under the four different projections, including the taxable valuation of properties at risk assessed by land use type of: residential, commercial, industrial, public industrial, public utilities, right-of-way, schools and vacant.

Based on Tampa’s 2010 census blocks population count, an estimated 15,300-15,700 people live in one of the 118 census blocks that may be potentially affected by one, if not all, the sea level rise scenarios. The report breaks down the race and ethnicity of people living within these census blocks that may be impacted by sea level rise.  

Publication Date: December 12, 2016

Related Organizations:

  • City of Tampa, Florida
  • Hillsborough County, Florida City-County Planning Commission


Resource Category:

Resource Types:

  • Assessment

States Affected:


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