From Boom to Bust? Climate Risk in the Golden State

The report “From Boom to Bust: Climate Risk in the Golden State,” was commissioned by the Risky Business Project, a collection of business and policy leaders dedicated to publicizing the economic costs of unabated climate change. The group is chaired by environmentalist donor Tom Steyer, ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Henry Paulson Jr., a former Treasury Secretary.

This report focuses on California and explores some of the likely economic consequences to the state of continuing on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with no significant new national policy or global action to mitigate climate change.

The research combines state-of-the-art climate science projections through the year 2100 (and beyond in some cases) with empirically-derived estimates of the impact of projected changes in temperature and precipitation on the California economy. The outcomes most likely to occur are analyzed, as well as the lower-probability, higher-cost climate impacts.

The analysis divides the state into seven distinct regions, reflecting the state’s major economic and population centers and key climate zones, which are loosely grouped into the following three categories:

- The coastal regions - South Coast, Bay Area & Central Coast, and North Coast;

- the Central Valley - including the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley regions;

- and the eastern edge of the state - including the mountainous Sierra range and the desert counties in the Inland South

The study finds that along the coast, rising sea-levels will likely put billions of dollars of property and infrastructure at risk. California is on track to lose $8 billion to $10 billion of coastal property that will be underwater by mid-century.  An additional $20 billion will be at risk during high tide.

Further inland, increasingly warm and dry conditions threaten the productivity of one of the richest agricultural regions in the world. Eastern California, a haven for natural recreation and tourism, will be permanently marked by warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. And across the state, extreme heat will fuel large and costly wildfires, endanger water resources, drive up energy costs, exacerbate air pollution, and threaten human health.

The report provides an additional section focused solely on climate impacts to the agriculture industry in California. The Risky Business Project original research focuses on two specific climate impacts, changes in heat and precipitation, and their interaction with the four major commodity crops which are the most ubiquitous nationwide: corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. However, California’s agriculture industry is oriented more toward production of fruit, nuts, vegetables, and dairy. The report briefly presents quantitative results from the research on the risks climate change presents to corn, cotton, and wheat, and then turns to a more qualitative discussion of potential climate impacts on specialty crops and the livestock sector.

Overall, the research shows that California faces significant climate risks to its commodity crop output if we stay on our current greenhouse gas emissions pathway, but that these risks are extremely crop- and location-specific. The report notes that while the agriculture sector will face significant risks, it is also one of the best equipped to manage these risks. “Farmers have always adapted to changing weather and climate conditions, with adaptation and flexibility built into their business models. Armed with the right information, California farmers may be able to mitigate some of these impacts through seed modification, crop switching, and other adaptive practices.”

The mission of the Risky Business Project is to quantify the economic risks to the United States from unmitigated climate change. Their inaugural report, Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States, highlighted these risks across every region of the country, with a focus on three sectors: agriculture, energy demand, and coastal infrastructure - along with overarching issues such as changes in labor productivity and heat-related mortality.


 

Publication Date: April 2, 2015

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  • Assessment

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