Treasure Island Adaptation Strategy For Sea Level Rise, Part I: Background and Projections

This report is part of a series of case studies of Bay Area local planning efforts and projects that address climate change impacts that the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission's (BCDC) Adaptation Assistance Program (AAP), San Francisco National Estuarine Research Reserve (SF NERR) Coastal Training Program, and NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) are working together to develop. Target audiences for the case studies are local land use planners and resource managers who are interested in seeing examples of how others in the region have assessed climate change risks and incorporated policies and actions into local plans and/or adaptive design features into projects.

The report summarizes the methodologies and findings of the scientific sea-level rise projections that the authors view as most credible, and briefly describes their implications for Treasure Island.  Treasure Island is a man made island in the middle of San Francisco Bay, California.  Development plans for Treasure Island and Yerba Buena Island include 6,000 to 8,000 new homes, up to 500 hotel rooms, a 400 slip marina, restaurants, retail and entertainment venues, and nearly 300 acres of parks and open space. 

The report presents projections for sea-level rise from 1990 to 2120, with particular focus on 2100, when estimates range from under ten inches to over fifty.  The Treasure Island implications analysis is focused on a proposed plan to locate buildings 3.5 feet above the base flood elevation. The report notes, however, that prior to a three foot rise, it will be necessary to construct additional protections against coastal flooding, such as low perimeter berm and upgrades to the pump system, and the proposed layout leaves room for such protection.


Publication Date: June 2008

Author or Affiliated User:

  • Dr. Susan Tonkin

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Resource Category:

Resource Types:

  • Assessment

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